Lifetime Risk of Chronic Kidney Disease High in U.S.

Simulation model projects that CKD prevalence will rise from 13.2% currently to nearly 17% by 2030.
Simulation model projects that CKD prevalence will rise from 13.2% currently to nearly 17% by 2030.

More than half of U.S. adults aged 30 to 64 years without chronic kidney disease (CKD) will develop CKD during their lifetime, recently published projections suggest.

The lifetime incidence among those currently aged 30 to 49, 50 to 64, and 65 years and older is estimated at 54%, 52%, and 42%, respectively.

“Knowing the lifetime incidence of CKD may raise individuals' awareness and encourage them to take steps to prevent CKD,” concluded researchers Thomas J. Hoerger, PhD, of RTI International in Research Triangle Park, N.C., and colleagues, who based the projections on a simulation model.

Based on their model, they projected that the prevalence of CKD among adults aged 30 years or older will rise from 13.2% currently to 14.4% and 16.7% by 2020 and 2030, respectively, according to findings published online ahead of print in the American Journal of Kidney Diseases. Combining the projections of CKD prevalence with overall population projections, the investigators project that the number of Americans aged 30 years and older with CKD will reach 28 million in 2020 and about 38 million in 2030.

“This increase suggests that CKD health care costs and quality-of-life losses will increase accordingly and further emphasizes the need to develop new interventions to slow the onset and progression of CKD,” Dr. Hoerger's team wrote.

The researchers relied on a simulation sample based on nationally representative data from persons aged 30 years and older who participated in the 1999–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

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