International Cardiovascular Disease Risk Equation

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Risk equation can be recalibrated for application in different countries; good discrimination in validations.
Risk equation can be recalibrated for application in different countries; good discrimination in validations.

(HealthDay News) -- A cardiovascular disease risk equation has been developed that can be recalibrated for application in different countries, according to a report published online in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

Kaveh Hajifathalian, M.D., from the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston, and colleagues developed and applied a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease that can be recalibrated and updated for application in different countries. 

Data were collected from 8 prospective cohort studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equation. The risk prediction equation included smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol, and considered the effects of sex and age on cardiovascular disease.

The researchers found that in internal and external validations, the risk score discriminated well, with C statistics generally 70% or more. The estimated 10-year fatal cardiovascular disease risk varied considerably between countries at any age and risk factor level. 

South Korea, Spain, and Denmark had the lowest prevalence of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease, with only 5 to 10% of men and women having >10% risk and 62 to 77% of men and 79 to 82% of women having <3% risk. China and Mexico had the highest proportion of people with high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease.

"The estimated percentage of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was higher in low-income and middle-income countries than in high income countries," the authors write.

One author disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

Sources

  1. Hajifathalian, K, et al. Published online by The Lancet; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00081-9.
  2. Karel GM Moonsemail and Ewoud Schuit. The Lancet; doi: 10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00002-9.
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