CVD Risk Prediction Models Reliable for African Americans
Reclassification improvement not much different for new model versus FHS, ACA/AHA risk algorithms.
(HealthDay News) -- Current cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms are valid for black adults, according to a study published online in JAMA Cardiology.
Ervin R. Fox, MD, MPH, from the University of Mississippi Medical Center in Jackson, and colleagues developed and validated risk prediction models for CVD incidence in black adults in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS). Data were included for 3,689 participants (mean age at baseline, 53 years).
The researchers found that 270 participants experienced a first cardiovascular disease event over a median of 9.1 years. Modest improvement was seen with a simple combination of standard CVD risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide, and ankle-brachial index, compared with a model without B-type natriuretic peptide and ankle-brachial index (C-statistics, 0.79). The reclassification improvement was not significantly different for this model versus the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) CVD Pooled Cohort risk equations or the Framingham Risk Score (FHS). In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis data, the models discriminated reasonably well (C-statistic range, 0.70 to 0.77).
"Our findings using the JHS data in the present study are valuable because they confirm that current FHS and ACC/AHA risk algorithms work well in black individuals and are not easily improved on," the authors write. "A unique risk calculator for black adults may not be necessary."
Two authors disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.
- Fox ER, Samdarshi TE, Musani SK, et al. Development and Validation of Risk Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Events in Black Adults. JAMA Cardiol. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2015.0300.
- Goff Jr. DC and Lloyd-Jones DM. The Pooled Cohort Risk Equations—Black Risk Matters. JAMA Cardiol. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2015.0323.